ESSAYS ON MONETARY POLICY IN CHINA, ACTA UNIVERSITATIS OULUENSIS G Oeconomica 83
|ISBN-13:||978-952-62-1234-0 || |
|Kustantaja:||Oulun yliopisto|| |
|Painos:||Osajulkaisuväitöskirjan yhteenveto-osa|| |
|Sijainti:||Print Tietotalo|| |
|Tekijät:||NUUTILAINEN RIIKKA|| |
China’s outstanding growth performance of recent years, the ongoing liberalisation of its capital market, and its deepening integration into the world economy provide ample motivation for a deeper understanding of the country’s economic policy-making. This dissertation is an attempt to better understand monetary policy operations and transmission in this rapidly evolving situation. Monetary policy in China is unique compared to any other country in terms of both the available policy instruments and the policy environment. The policy regime is transitioning to a more market-orientated one, and presently the central bank uses a mixture of quantity-based and price-based instruments. These special features are addressed in this dissertation.
The dissertation is comprised of four independent but related essays that empirically evaluate monetary policy implementation and the policy environment in China. The first essay examines the relevance of a quantity-based McCallum-type policy rule in achieving price stability. The findings are that deviations in money supply from the rule help to forecast price developments and thus underline the relation between money supply and prices in China. The second essay considers a wider selection of possible policy rules and examines the monetary policy implementation and instruments used by the central bank. Money supply and interest rate instruments are found to react differently to price and output developments. The interest rate instrument is gaining weight over time, which highlights China’s transition to a more market-based policy setting.
The third essay utilises bank-level data to study monetary policy transmission and the existence of the bank lending channel in China. Changes in the reserve requirement ratio are found to affect bank lending in China in a similar manner as changes in interest rates. Different types of banks (by ownership) react differently to these changes, but no robust evidence of a bank lending channel is found. The fourth essay compares the economic dynamics in a DSGE modelling framework under the assumption that China can successfully rebalance its economy and achieve a lower savings rate and higher level of domestic consumption. The rebalancing does not notably affect the transmission of monetary policy shocks, but it does render the economy more resilient to technology shocks.